Moving Beyond the Single-Point Forecast
State agencies responsible for water, agriculture, transportation, and economic development are typically tasked with planning for the future, yet they often rely on linear extrapolations of past trends or single, 'most likely' forecasts. In a world of climate volatility, technological disruption, and social change, this approach is dangerously inadequate. The South Dakota Institute of Prairie Futurology has developed a specialized practice in bringing scenario planning—a core methodology of strategic foresight—into the heart of state government. Our 'Scenario Planning for State Agencies' initiative is a service and toolkit designed to help policymakers break free from prediction and instead prepare for a range of plausible futures. We teach them to make decisions that are robust across multiple scenarios, ensuring that policies are resilient no matter how the future unfolds.
The Four-Step Process: From Uncertainty to Strategy
We guide agencies through a structured, four-step process, typically in intensive multi-day workshops followed by ongoing support. Step One: Focal Issue and Driving Forces. We start by defining the key decision or policy area (e.g., 'Managing the State Highway Trust Fund for 2040'). We then identify the critical driving forces—social, technological, economic, environmental, and political—that will shape this issue. We distinguish between predetermined elements (e.g., an aging rural population) and critical uncertainties (e.g., the rate of adoption of electric and autonomous vehicles, or the level of federal infrastructure investment). Step Two: Scenario Generation. We use the two most impactful and uncertain driving forces to create a 2x2 matrix, defining four distinct, plausible future worlds. For the highway trust fund example, the axes might be 'Level of Federal Infrastructure Investment' (High vs. Low) and 'Mode of Transportation' (Personal Vehicle-Dominant vs. Multimodal/Shared). This gives us four scenarios: 'Green New Deal Highways,' 'Privatized Mobility,' 'Stranded Hinterlands,' and 'Localized Resilience.'
Step Three: Fleshing Out the Scenarios. We then develop rich, narrative descriptions of each scenario. What does daily life look like in each? What are the key events that led there? What are the implications for road use, maintenance needs, and revenue sources? We often bring in elements from our other research—our climate models, demographic trends, or energy projections—to ground the scenarios in data. Step Four: Strategy Testing and Development. This is the core of the exercise. We take the agency's existing strategic plans or proposed policies and 'wind-tunnel' them against each of the four scenarios. Does a plan to increase the gas tax work in a world of predominantly electric vehicles? Does a plan to widen a specific interstate corridor make sense in a 'Localized Resilience' scenario where long-distance trucking has declined? The goal is to identify 'no-regrets' moves that are beneficial in all scenarios, 'contingent' strategies that are good in some but not others, and 'fatally flawed' strategies that fail in multiple futures. This process leads to more adaptive, flexible, and resilient strategic plans.
Building Internal Foresight Capacity
Our goal is not to create dependency on the Institute as external futurists, but to build internal foresight capacity within state government. Alongside workshops, we train a cadre of 'Foresight Champions' within each agency—staff who learn the methodology and can facilitate future sessions. We also co-develop with them a 'Strategic Early Warning System,' a short list of key indicators to monitor for each critical uncertainty. For example, if a key uncertainty is the viability of carbon capture and storage, the early warning indicators might include federal subsidy levels, technological cost curves, and public acceptance polls. By monitoring these indicators, the agency can know which of their prepared scenarios is beginning to materialize, allowing them to activate their contingent strategies in a timely manner. This transforms planning from a static, one-time event into an ongoing discipline of watching, learning, and adapting.
The impact of this work is significant. We have helped the Department of Agriculture develop resilience plans for commodity markets under different climate and trade scenarios. We have assisted the Water Management Board in creating adaptive allocation rules for the Missouri River that hold under various precipitation and demand futures. By making uncertainty explicit and manageable, we reduce policy panic and short-termism. Policymakers report feeling more confident and less blindsided by events. The Scenario Planning Toolkit is, in many ways, the most practical and high-leverage output of the Institute. It translates the often-esoteric practice of futurology into a concrete, actionable management tool, ensuring that the governance of the prairie is as forward-looking, robust, and adaptive as the ecological systems it aims to steward.